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Risk Matrix

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An earlier version looked like this:

CASH-FLOW CATEGORY  

Times:

Less:

Plus:

Less:

 

Qty

Price

Costs

Royalties

Overheads

Depreciation

Interest

Taxes

Depreciation

Capex

Working Capital

Loan Repayment

Risk Category

SUPPLY/TRAFFIC

Operating:- TECHNICAL

Operating:- COST

Operating:-MANAGEMENT

ENVIRONMENTAL

INFRASTRUCTURE

MARKET

POLITICAL

FORCE MAJEURE

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

FUNDING

PARTICIPANT

COMPLETION

ENGINEERING

LEGAL

SYNDICATION

X

X

X

 

 

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

X

 

X

 

X

X

X

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

X

X

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

X

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

X

X

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

X

X

 

 

X

X

 

 

 

 

X

X

X

 

X

 

 

X

 

 

 

X

X

 

X

X

 

EQUALS: - REVENUE

EQUALS: - NET INCOME

EQUALS: - NET CASH FLOW

More recent (and better looking) version has been  reformatted to work on the web..  Here are the risks:

1          Supply/Traffic/Reserve

2          Market

3          Foreign Exchange

4          Operating: Technical

5          Operating: Cost

6          Operating: Management

7          Environmental

8          Infrastructure

9          Force Majeure

10          Completion

11          Engineering

12          Political

13          Participant

14          Funding/Interest

15          Syndication

16          Legal

Risk (per above)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Output Number/Qty

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

times:                    Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

equals:                           Revenue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

less:        Cash Costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Royalties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overheads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

equals: Net Operating Cashflow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

plus:     Project Loan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

equals:                Total Sources  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

less:                Capex

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

? Working Capital

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest (“I”)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

± Cash  Reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Tax

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Principal (“P”)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

equals:                          Total Uses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Source-Total Uses = Net Net Cash Flow ("NNCF")

Available Cash Flow (for debt service) is:

      ACF =   NNCF + P + I

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